Satellite Petrochemical (002648): Sino-US multi-year first-phase economic and trade agreement favors the company’s Lianyungang project is expected to go up

Satellite Petrochemical (002648): Sino-US multi-year first-phase economic and trade agreement favors the company’s Lianyungang project is expected to go up

This report reads: China-US preliminary first-phase economic and trade agreement, the import of energy products is expected to increase the weight of raw materials 杭州桑拿网 projects.

The company’s Lianyungang project is progressing smoothly and will become a stable growth point for future performance after it is put into production.

Investment points: Maintain Overweight rating, lower profit forecast and raise target price.

As the C3 operating rate may exceed expectations in 2020, the EPS for 2019/2020/2021 will be adjusted to 1.

15/1.

50/2.

34 yuan (values before 2019/2020 are 1 respectively.

15/2.

02 yuan), because the industry sector is estimated to increase, the industry average PE12 in 2020 is used.

87 times, raise the target price to 19.

31 yuan, increase holdings.

The first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement, the import of energy products is expected to increase the weight of raw materials projects.

According to the agreement, China will expand imports of US $ 52.4 billion in energy commodities in the next two years, of which US $ 18.5 and US $ 33.9 billion will be needed in 2020 and 2021.

The company’s Lianyungang project’s lightweight raw material additives are mainly from the United States. The easing of the Sino-U.S. Trade range is conducive to the company’s Lianyungang project’s transformation and upward movement.

After the company’s Lianyungang project is put into production, it will become a stable growth point for future performance.

After the completion of the company’s Lianyungang project, it will mainly produce 212 inputs / year of MEG, 80 inputs / year of HDPE, 55 inputs / year of LLDPE, 50 inputs / year of EO, and 26 inputs / year of CAN.

The total investment of the project is US $ 33.5 billion, of which US $ 18.4 billion is invested in the first phase, and the company raises 3 billion through non-public offering; US $ 15.1 billion is invested in the second phase.

The first phase of the project is expected to be commissioned in 2020.

The company’s Lianyungang project is progressing smoothly.

In March 2018, Zhejiang Satellite Energy Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, was a subsidiary of the United States (referred to as American Satellite). American Satellite and SPMT jointly funded the establishment of a new company, ORBIT, responsible for the construction, operation and management of export and export facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.Provide coaxial export guarantee for Lianyungang project.

ORBIT will be the third terminal and facility in the United States to merge export conditions.

Risk reminder: the risk of budget price decline, acrylic acid demand exceeds expected risk